Predicted COVID-19 fatality rates based on age, sex, comorbidities and health system capacity.
Identifieur interne : 000343 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000342; suivant : 000344Predicted COVID-19 fatality rates based on age, sex, comorbidities and health system capacity.
Auteurs : Selene Ghisolfi [Suède, Italie] ; Ingvild Alm S [Suède] ; Justin C. Sandefur [États-Unis] ; Tillman Von Carnap [Suède] ; Jesse Heitner [États-Unis] ; Tessa Bold [Suède]Source :
- BMJ global health [ 2059-7908 ] ; 2020.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Adolescent (MeSH), Adulte (MeSH), Adulte d'âge moyen (MeSH), Betacoronavirus (MeSH), Comorbidité (MeSH), Enfant (MeSH), Enfant d'âge préscolaire (MeSH), Femelle (MeSH), Humains (MeSH), Infections à coronavirus (mortalité), Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Jeune adulte (MeSH), Modèles statistiques (MeSH), Mâle (MeSH), Nourrisson (MeSH), Nouveau-né (MeSH), Pandémies (MeSH), Pneumopathie virale (mortalité), Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie), Ressources en santé (ressources et distribution), Sujet âgé (MeSH), Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus (MeSH).
- MESH :
- mortalité : Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- ressources et distribution : Ressources en santé.
- épidémiologie : Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Betacoronavirus, Comorbidité, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Femelle, Humains, Jeune adulte, Modèles statistiques, Mâle, Nourrisson, Nouveau-né, Pandémies, Sujet âgé, Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Adolescent (MeSH), Adult (MeSH), Aged (MeSH), Aged, 80 and over (MeSH), Betacoronavirus (MeSH), Child (MeSH), Child, Preschool (MeSH), Comorbidity (MeSH), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (mortality), Female (MeSH), Health Resources (supply & distribution), Humans (MeSH), Infant (MeSH), Infant, Newborn (MeSH), Male (MeSH), Middle Aged (MeSH), Models, Statistical (MeSH), Pandemics (MeSH), Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Pneumonia, Viral (mortality), Young Adult (MeSH).
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- mortality : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- supply & distribution : Health Resources.
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Betacoronavirus, Child, Child, Preschool, Comorbidity, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Pandemics, Young Adult.
Abstract
Early reports suggest the fatality rate from COVID-19 varies greatly across countries, but non-random testing and incomplete vital registration systems render it impossible to directly estimate the infection fatality rate (IFR) in many low- and middle-income countries. To fill this gap, we estimate the adjustments required to extrapolate estimates of the IFR from high-income to lower-income regions. Accounting for differences in the distribution of age, sex and relevant comorbidities yields substantial differences in the predicted IFR across 21 world regions, ranging from 0.11% in Western Sub-Saharan Africa to 1.07% for high-income Asia Pacific. However, these predictions must be treated as lower bounds in low- and middle-income countries as they are grounded in fatality rates from countries with advanced health systems. To adjust for health system capacity, we incorporate regional differences in the relative odds of infection fatality from childhood respiratory syncytial virus. This adjustment greatly diminishes but does not entirely erase the demography-based advantage predicted in the lowest income settings, with regional estimates of the predicted COVID-19 IFR ranging from 0.37% in Western Sub-Saharan Africa to 1.45% for Eastern Europe.
DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003094
PubMed: 32912856
PubMed Central: PMC7482102
Affiliations:
- Italie, Suède, États-Unis
- District de Columbia, Lombardie, Svealand
- Milan, Stockholm
- Université de Stockholm
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
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(MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortality" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortalité" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>Pneumopathie virale</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="ressources et distribution" xml:lang="fr"><term>Ressources en santé</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="supply & distribution" xml:lang="en"><term>Health Resources</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>Pneumopathie virale</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adult</term><term>Aged</term><term>Aged, 80 and over</term><term>Betacoronavirus</term><term>Child</term><term>Child, Preschool</term><term>Comorbidity</term><term>Female</term><term>Humans</term><term>Infant</term><term>Infant, Newborn</term><term>Male</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Models, Statistical</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Young Adult</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adulte</term><term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term><term>Betacoronavirus</term><term>Comorbidité</term><term>Enfant</term><term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term><term>Femelle</term><term>Humains</term><term>Jeune adulte</term><term>Modèles statistiques</term><term>Mâle</term><term>Nourrisson</term><term>Nouveau-né</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Sujet âgé</term><term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Early reports suggest the fatality rate from COVID-19 varies greatly across countries, but non-random testing and incomplete vital registration systems render it impossible to directly estimate the infection fatality rate (IFR) in many low- and middle-income countries. To fill this gap, we estimate the adjustments required to extrapolate estimates of the IFR from high-income to lower-income regions. Accounting for differences in the distribution of age, sex and relevant comorbidities yields substantial differences in the predicted IFR across 21 world regions, ranging from 0.11% in Western Sub-Saharan Africa to 1.07% for high-income Asia Pacific. However, these predictions must be treated as lower bounds in low- and middle-income countries as they are grounded in fatality rates from countries with advanced health systems. To adjust for health system capacity, we incorporate regional differences in the relative odds of infection fatality from childhood respiratory syncytial virus. This adjustment greatly diminishes but does not entirely erase the demography-based advantage predicted in the lowest income settings, with regional estimates of the predicted COVID-19 IFR ranging from 0.37% in Western Sub-Saharan Africa to 1.45% for Eastern Europe.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32912856</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>30</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>01</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">2059-7908</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>5</Volume><Issue>9</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>BMJ global health</Title><ISOAbbreviation>BMJ Glob Health</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Predicted COVID-19 fatality rates based on age, sex, comorbidities and health system capacity.</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">e003094</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003094</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Early reports suggest the fatality rate from COVID-19 varies greatly across countries, but non-random testing and incomplete vital registration systems render it impossible to directly estimate the infection fatality rate (IFR) in many low- and middle-income countries. To fill this gap, we estimate the adjustments required to extrapolate estimates of the IFR from high-income to lower-income regions. Accounting for differences in the distribution of age, sex and relevant comorbidities yields substantial differences in the predicted IFR across 21 world regions, ranging from 0.11% in Western Sub-Saharan Africa to 1.07% for high-income Asia Pacific. However, these predictions must be treated as lower bounds in low- and middle-income countries as they are grounded in fatality rates from countries with advanced health systems. To adjust for health system capacity, we incorporate regional differences in the relative odds of infection fatality from childhood respiratory syncytial virus. This adjustment greatly diminishes but does not entirely erase the demography-based advantage predicted in the lowest income settings, with regional estimates of the predicted COVID-19 IFR ranging from 0.37% in Western Sub-Saharan Africa to 1.45% for Eastern Europe.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ghisolfi</LastName><ForeName>Selene</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>LEAP, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Almås</LastName><ForeName>Ingvild</ForeName><Initials>I</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Sandefur</LastName><ForeName>Justin C</ForeName><Initials>JC</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-2233-834X</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Center for Global Development, Washington, DC, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>von Carnap</LastName><ForeName>Tillman</ForeName><Initials>T</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Heitner</LastName><ForeName>Jesse</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Aceso Global, Washington, DC, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Bold</LastName><ForeName>Tessa</ForeName><Initials>T</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden tessa.bold@iies.su.se.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013485">Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D016454">Review</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>BMJ Glob Health</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101685275</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2059-7908</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><SupplMeshList><SupplMeshName Type="Disease" UI="C000657245">COVID-19</SupplMeshName><SupplMeshName Type="Organism" UI="C000656484">severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2</SupplMeshName></SupplMeshList><CitationSubset>H</CitationSubset><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000293" MajorTopicYN="N">Adolescent</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000328" MajorTopicYN="N">Adult</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000368" MajorTopicYN="N">Aged</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000369" MajorTopicYN="N">Aged, 80 and over</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000073640" MajorTopicYN="N">Betacoronavirus</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002648" MajorTopicYN="N">Child</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002675" MajorTopicYN="N">Child, Preschool</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D015897" MajorTopicYN="N">Comorbidity</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018352" MajorTopicYN="N">Coronavirus Infections</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000401" MajorTopicYN="Y">mortality</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005260" MajorTopicYN="N">Female</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006295" MajorTopicYN="N">Health Resources</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000600" MajorTopicYN="Y">supply & distribution</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007223" MajorTopicYN="N">Infant</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007231" MajorTopicYN="N">Infant, Newborn</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008297" MajorTopicYN="N">Male</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008875" MajorTopicYN="N">Middle Aged</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D015233" MajorTopicYN="N">Models, Statistical</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058873" MajorTopicYN="N">Pandemics</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011024" MajorTopicYN="N">Pneumonia, Viral</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000401" MajorTopicYN="Y">mortality</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D055815" MajorTopicYN="N">Young Adult</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">SARS</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">public health</Keyword></KeywordList><CoiStatement>Competing interests: None declared.</CoiStatement></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>05</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2020</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>06</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>09</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>11</Day><Hour>5</Hour><Minute>38</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>12</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>2</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32912856</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">bmjgh-2020-003094</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003094</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7482102</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>N Engl J Med. 2020 Jun 11;382(24):2302-2315</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32289214</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Lancet Glob Health. 2020 Apr;8(4):e497-e510</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32087815</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 May 5;117(18):9696-9698</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32300018</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Lancet. 2010 May 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2;390(10098):946-958</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">28689664</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Italie</li><li>Suède</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>District de Columbia</li><li>Lombardie</li><li>Svealand</li></region><settlement><li>Milan</li><li>Stockholm</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université de Stockholm</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="Suède"><region name="Svealand"><name sortKey="Ghisolfi, Selene" sort="Ghisolfi, Selene" uniqKey="Ghisolfi S" first="Selene" last="Ghisolfi">Selene Ghisolfi</name></region><name sortKey="Alm S, Ingvild" sort="Alm S, Ingvild" uniqKey="Alm S I" first="Ingvild" last="Alm S">Ingvild Alm S</name><name sortKey="Bold, Tessa" sort="Bold, Tessa" uniqKey="Bold T" first="Tessa" last="Bold">Tessa Bold</name><name sortKey="Von Carnap, Tillman" sort="Von Carnap, Tillman" uniqKey="Von Carnap T" first="Tillman" last="Von Carnap">Tillman Von Carnap</name></country><country name="Italie"><region name="Lombardie"><name sortKey="Ghisolfi, Selene" sort="Ghisolfi, Selene" uniqKey="Ghisolfi S" first="Selene" last="Ghisolfi">Selene Ghisolfi</name></region></country><country name="États-Unis"><region name="District de Columbia"><name sortKey="Sandefur, Justin C" sort="Sandefur, Justin C" uniqKey="Sandefur J" first="Justin C" last="Sandefur">Justin C. Sandefur</name></region><name sortKey="Heitner, Jesse" sort="Heitner, Jesse" uniqKey="Heitner J" first="Jesse" last="Heitner">Jesse Heitner</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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